M Nadal & Co Strategic Advisory

Dated.
Falsifiable.
On the record.

I put dated, falsifiable theses on record before the institutions did, and the record is public.
Every thesis carries a condition that would prove it wrong, published before the fact. Independent of sell-side conflicts.

Chaos & Order — the work that proves it.
Advisory mandates Chaos & Order
151d
Mean lead on structural theses
64
Corroborated ahead of the event
28
Falsifiers published
About

Marjorie Nadal

Marjorie Nadal

Twenty-five years building and running institutional commodities trading operations: Société Générale, Lehman Brothers through the 2008 collapse, Calyon as Global Head of Commodities Structured Products Trading, BBVA as Global Head of Metals and Softs Trading.

Precious metals options market-maker across multiple market cycles. I built trading desks from scratch at three institutions and designed the portfolio optimisation franchise at Eni Trading and Shipping, where I served on the executive advisory board and then as a consultant on asset optimisation.

Advisory relationships have included the World Gold Council and the World Platinum Investment Council, where I contributed to the institutional framework at inception.

I trade my own book and publish what used to stay inside institutions. Each edition takes one thesis — a structural shift in markets, a geopolitical realignment, a capital flow that hasn't yet acquired a consensus name — and builds it to its conclusion. Sourced data. Original charts. A stated position.

The analytical track record is published openly.

Based in London  ·  French-British dual national

Institutional background
Société Générale Lehman Brothers Credit Suisse Calyon BBVA Eni Trading & Shipping World Gold Council WPIC
Advisory

A small number of mandates.
Depth of engagement, not volume.

Independent analysis of a specific allocation question, built from primary sources, with the conditions that would prove it wrong stated up front. The same method published in Chaos & Order, applied to your problem rather than to mine.

01
Original analysis, not aggregated consensus
Every brief built from primary sources and original frameworks. Analysis, not an aggregation of sell-side research or media narratives.
02
A public track record
Every call timestamped, every corroboration named, every falsifier published in advance and scored in public. No black box.
03
Selective by design
A limited number of mandates at any time. Depth of engagement, not volume of clients.

Who this is for

Family offices, trading desks, and institutional allocators who need independent geopolitical and commodity market intelligence — without the conflicts of interest embedded in institutional research.

Family offices building internal investment capability
Trading desks requiring independent commodity intelligence
Institutions navigating energy transition and geopolitical risk
Capital allocators in frontier and emerging markets

Advisory services are provided to professional and institutional counterparties only. Nothing on this site is investment advice or a personal recommendation, and M Nadal and Co Limited is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Briefing call
£5,000
One question · ninety minutes
One allocation question, worked through with you, followed by a written note setting out the reasoning, the scenarios, and what would break them. The usual way in.
Private war game
Scoped
One team · one live problem
Your team plays the actors in a live market problem, round by round, with the consequences tested against how markets and governments actually behave. About ninety minutes, then a structured debrief: the decision points, the assumptions that failed, the indicators to watch, and what would change the view.
Scenario and Positioning
£50,000
Per engagement
Not the risk, but the shape of it: the exposures it runs through, the instruments the market uses to carry it, and what each one costs when the scenario turns. One question worked to its conclusion, with the conditions that would prove it wrong stated up front.
The Standing Watch
from £120,000/yr
Continuous · a small number at any time
A continuous intelligence relationship mapped to your own book. The published work, your specific exposures tracked against published scenarios, and the principal on the phone when something moves.
Build Mandates
Scoped
Per project
Desk creation, system specification, risk governance and control infrastructure, model validation, reserve calibration, structured product design.
Independent of sell-side conflicts. A small number of mandates at any time, and when a mandate is taken the client gets the principal rather than an associate.

All fees quoted exclusive of VAT. VAT treatment for non-UK clients depends on place of supply.

M Nadal and Co Limited provides research, scenario analysis and framework design. It does not provide investment advice or personal recommendations, and it is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Mandates are accepted from professional and institutional counterparties only. Decisions on positions, hedging and sizing remain those of the client.
Publication

Chaos & Order

Weekly market intelligence covering energy geopolitics, commodities, private credit and monetary architecture. The Sunday Briefing scores every published condition each week. Strategic Advisory Briefs take one thesis and build it to its conclusion.

"Most financial analysis mistakes noise for signal. Chaos & Order does not."
Loading latest…
The Sunday Briefing
Every week: the priority signals, what moved, and where every published condition stands. Free lines at the top, the full issue below.
Read the briefing →
Strategic Advisory Briefs & Editions
Original structural analysis with scenario frameworks and falsification conditions. Published months ahead of institutional consensus. Full archive of SABs and C&O editions.
View archive →
Pharos — Forward Scenarios
A live thesis and scenario map. The full analytical track record is publicly visible. Forward probability branches and scenario outcomes for Founding members only.
Open Pharos →
Sequencing Journal
Every call timestamped and corroborated against named institutional sources — IEA, EU Commission, Goldman Sachs, Pentagon, Reuters, FT. Mean lead 151 days on structural theses. Fully public.
View track record →
War Games
Markets move when somebody has to make a decision. Make your calls before the outcome is known, against mine and the crowd’s, and see who read the pressure best when the board settles.
Play the current game →
Notes
Short observations published in real time — market signals, corroborations, and intelligence filed between editions.
Follow notes →

Subscribe to Chaos & Order

Free editions, Strategic Advisory Briefs, and Pharos. Choose the level of access that fits.

Free
C&O editions · notes · track record
£0
Paid
All SABs · full archive
£15/mo
Institutional
Off-record intelligence that cannot be published The scenario architecture in Pharos Priority on questions between editions
£3,000/yr
Subscribe →
Track Record

Called. Corroborated. Documented.

The analytical record is the primary credential. Sixty-four structural theses corroborated ahead of the event, at a mean lead of 151 days. Every call timestamped, every corroboration named, and every source checkable.

151d
Mean lead, structural theses
64
Corroborated ahead of the event
407d
Longest lead
28
Falsifiers published

Most research is graded on what it got right. Every thesis published here carries a condition that would prove it wrong, stated before the fact, and the record shows what happened to each one.

Twenty-eight falsifiers published. Conditions written in advance, dated, and scored in public whether they fired or held.

Fourteen pieces of counter-evidence logged. Evidence against my own positions, recorded in the same place as the corroborations.

Figures drawn from the Sequencing Journal, updated on publication. Lead times count structural theses corroborated ahead of the event. Analytical framework, not investment advice.

One worked example

The US Geological Survey modelled Canada restricting potash, published the probability at just under 11 per cent, and listed it as a critical mineral. Washington then wrote potash out of the tariff schedule that taxes wine, cement and hockey equipment at up to 50 per cent. A tariff schedule is written to hurt somebody else. The exemptions are the part where it would hurt you instead.

Read the piece →
Live tool
Pharos
Interactive thesis and scenario map. Public track record visible. Forward scenarios for Founding members.
Live tool
Sequencing Journal
Filterable record of every publication, lead time, and named institutional corroboration.
Live tool
War Games
Public games on live market decisions: calls made before the outcome, scored when it lands.
Contact

Advisory enquiries, institutional partnerships, and press. Unsolicited sales, performance monitoring services, SEO agencies, and cold outreach of any kind will not receive a response.

Direct enquiries
office@mnadalandco.com
Substackchaosandorderinsight.substack.com LinkedInMarjorie Nadal X@Chaos_Insight
Replies within two working days. What you send here is used only to answer your enquiry. See how this data is handled.

Mandates

  • Independent geopolitical and commodity market intelligence for family office investment committees
  • Strategic scenario analysis for trading desks navigating energy transition and supply disruption
  • Advisory input on commodity structured products and physical portfolio optimisation
  • Institutional framework development for new commodity investment vehicles
  • Keynote and briefing engagements for institutional audiences on commodities, geopolitical risk, and market structure
Privacy notice & how enquiry data is handled

Who holds the data

M NADAL AND CO LIMITED, registered in England and Wales, company number 07044386, VAT registration 496631550, trading as M Nadal & Co Strategic Advisory. Registered office: 45 Burlington Avenue, Richmond, London TW9 4DG. Data protection enquiries: office@mnadalandco.com.

What is collected, and when

If you use the enquiry form, the name, firm, email address and enquiry text you type are collected. Nothing else on this site asks for personal data. No account is created and no profile is built.

Why, and on what basis

The information is used solely to reply to your enquiry and, where it leads somewhere, to discuss an advisory mandate. The lawful basis is legitimate interests: responding to a business enquiry you chose to send. You can object at any time and the correspondence will be deleted.

Who else sees it

The form is transmitted by Formspree, Inc. (United States), acting as a processor. Replies are sent and stored in the firm’s business email system. Web fonts are served by Google Fonts, which receives your IP address in order to deliver them. The Chaos & Order subscription panel on this page is served by Substack, Inc. and is governed by Substack's own privacy policy. Nothing you send is sold, shared for marketing, or added to a mailing list.

How long it is kept

Enquiry correspondence that does not lead to an engagement is retained for 24 months from the last contact and then deleted. Where an enquiry becomes a mandate, the records are kept for six years from the end of the engagement, in line with statutory accounting and limitation periods.

Your rights

You may request a copy of what is held, ask for it to be corrected or erased, or object to its use. Write to office@mnadalandco.com. If you are not satisfied with the response, you may complain to the Information Commissioner's Office at ico.org.uk.

Commercially sensitive enquiries

The enquiry form is a general-purpose web form and should not be used to send confidential position or portfolio information. Describe the question; leave out the numbers. Confidential material should follow only after an engagement and under its own terms.

Last updated 14 September 2026.